Despite Back-to-Back Upgrades, RIL Share Price Stagnates Near ₹1,250 – Buy, Hold, or Sell?

Despite multiple bullish target price revisions from analysts, Reliance’s share price remains stuck around ₹1,250, leaving investors confused. Top brokerages like Kotak Institutional Equities have upgraded their recommendation to “buy,” while Jefferies is also optimistic, maintaining a “buy” rating with a target price of ₹1,600. 

However, despite these positive outlooks, the stock has shown little to no momentum, raising concerns about whether these upgrades will translate into actual gains. 

So, should you buy, hold, or sell RIL shares? In this article, we will discuss what are the potential reasons for this 25% correction, what are the upcoming business plans by RIL and what the analysts are thinking about the stock.

Why Reliance Share Price Correction Happened?

Here are the major factors contributing to RIL’s more than 25% decline from its peak:

• Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Outflows

Foreign investors have been offloading Indian stocks, including RIL, contributing to the price drop. Since September 2022, FIIs have been gradually decreasing their stake in Reliance Industries, with their ownership dropping from 23.6% in Q2 FY23 to 19.6% in Q3 FY24-25. 

In the past two months alone, FIIs have sold off an additional ₹5,000 crore worth of stocks in the oil and gas sector, putting further pressure on Reliance share price.

• Slowdown in Retail Space

Reliance Retail has experienced a notable slowdown in growth, which has significantly impacted the company. This slowdown is due to various factors, including increased competition in the market and challenging economic conditions.

• Weak Refining Business

The O2C business, a key revenue driver, has been impacted by weak refining margins. This issue has been further aggravated by global economic challenges and geopolitical tensions that have influenced crude oil prices.

• Global Economic Uncertainty

Additionally, the concerns about global economic instability, such as trade wars, recessions and sanctions, have also contributed to a decline in investor confidence in RIL and further contributed to the downside of Reliance share price.

Future Business Planning of Reliance Industries 

Despite recent struggles, RIL has several growth initiatives that could fuel a recovery. These are some of the important points you should keep in mind:

• Reliance Jio’s IPO

Reliance Jio’s upcoming IPO, expected to raise between ₹35,000-40,000 crore, could have several key advantages for Reliance Industries. The capital raised will help reduce debt and reduce existing liabilities. 

This move also creates an opportunity to attract new investors and generate significant foreign capital inflows, further strengthening RIL’s standing as a diversified conglomerate.

• Solar PV Manufacturing Business

Reliance Industries is making a significant push into solar PV manufacturing with a ₹75,000 crore investment in new energy initiatives. The company plans to establish a 20 GW solar plant and launch its first solar giga-factory by FY24-25, producing key components such as PV modules, cells, wafers, and polysilicon.

Reliance aims to increase its solar capacity to 20 GW by 2026 and achieve 100 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. This strategy aligns with its objective of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2035.

• The Partnership of Starlink and Jio

On 12th March 2025, Jio Platforms Limited, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries (RIL), announced a strategic collaboration with Elon Musk’s Starlink to deliver high-speed internet services across India.

This partnership is expected to expand broadband access to remote and underserved areas, strengthening Jio’s market leadership while unlocking new revenue streams. This partnership enhances Jio’s position and unlocks potential synergies, supporting RIL’s overall financial growth and digital expansion.

• Campa Cola to Beat Other FMCG Players

Campa-Cola’s competitive pricing and increased retailer margins are shaking up the Indian beverage market, posing a challenge to established brands like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. 

This approach is benefiting Reliance Industries by capturing a larger market share and contributing ₹400 crore to Reliance Consumer Products’ sales in FY23-24. According to analysts, the brand can clock up to ₹1,000 crore revenue this year.

Encouraged by its domestic success, RIL now aims to expand Campa-Cola internationally, with plans to enter West Asian and African markets. This expansion is expected to strengthen RIL’s global presence and further drive revenue growth in its consumer goods segment.

• Disney-Reliance Media Merger

The joint venture between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Disney has created a media powerhouse valued at ₹70,352 crore, significantly strengthening RIL’s presence in the entertainment sector. RIL owns a 16.34% stake, while Viacom18 holds 46.82% and Disney owns 36.84%. 

This partnership brings together strong content creation capabilities, leading digital streaming platforms like JioCinema and Disney+Hotstar, and extensive sports broadcasting rights. It will grant RIL access to Disney’s vast content library, enhance its digital entertainment offerings, and help increase its market share in India’s media and entertainment industry.

Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Reliance Industries Share?

Though there are both negative and positive things happening in the conglomerate, as an investor, what should you do with this stock? In this case, you may check what the market experts are suggesting. Let us have a quick look at this table:

Additionally, here is a summary of the recommendations of the analysts as of March 2025:

• 21 analysts recommend a ‘Buy’
• 12 analysts recommend ‘Outperform’
• 1 analyst suggests a ‘Hold’
• 1 analyst has an ‘Underperform’ recommendation
• 1 analyst suggests a ‘Sell’

With 36 ratings in total and the current share price hovering around ₹1,250, investors can evaluate this data alongside RIL’s business outlook to make a well-informed investment decision.

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